Lady Gaga Debuts New Music Video, “Till It Happens To You;” Early Stats

Lady Gaga’s newest music video (released late last night) may not be an instant pop classic on the level of “Bad Romance,” or “Telephone,” but it grabs your soul and gives a few tugs. Reminiscent of adult contemporary heart-tuggers by the likes of Mary Lambert, Gaga sings, “You don’t know how it feels till it happens to you,” as men and women in a variety of situations are subjected to sexual violence and/or outright raped. The song has also been compared to prior evocative Gaga ballads like “Dope,” “Speechless,” and “Gypsy.”

“Till It Happens to You” was created for the sexual violence documentary, The Hunting Ground, which was released back in January. Lady Gaga has recently been a strong voice against sexual violence, and she has been vocal about her personal experiences.


In the description box, it says that a portion of proceeds from sales of the song will be donated to organizations helping survivors of sexual assault. So, lets take a peak at the early numbers and see how the song is likely to do.

Youtube Views

The video was released at approximately 8pm eastern time on 9/17/15. It had registered 680,859 views as of 9/18/15 7:00PM. It has registered 2,516,906 views as of 10:45AM on 9/19/2015.

Some chunk of the views that have already registered (perhaps 400,000) will have occurred in the first hours of the song’s availability on the 17th. As a general rule, I have found the total viewcount  as of noon on the following day to be a good estimate of the official viewcount through the previous day at midnight. Therefore, I estimate that the song has accumulated at least 2.5 million views through the end of its first full day of availability.

We will likely have official numbers for the first full day of availability on Sunday.

Current iTunes Sales

The song is currently at #27 on the iTunes chart, selling 0.2856 times the number of copies as the #1 song, which is currently Justin Bieber’s new single, “What Do You Mean.” Taylor Swift’s “Wildest Dreams” is currently selling 0.7495 times the rate of the #1 song, and it has stable week-over-week sales. Calibrating Gaga’s single to Taylor Swift’s, we achieve an estimate of 32,389 copies sold per week at the current rate.

Expected Trajectory

Per, the song rose steadily since its release (in 2.1-2.2 hour increments): 0.1398-0.1469-0.1968-0.2401-0.2726-0.2993-0.3099. Then, it dropped to 0.3068 and then down to .2979. It has remained in the .29s and .28s for the six frames since. However, the #1 song has been declining steadily in sales, so steady relative sales is the equivalent of steadily declining sales.

Another way to look at it is that Gaga’s iTunes chart position has declined from a peak of about #23 to a current position of #27. It was gaining relative to other songs in the first seven increments, declining relative to other songs in the next four increments, neutral for one increment, gaining for two more increments, and then declining again for the last increment.

I’m not going to lie. This is not the sales curve of a pop smash from an established artist. I suspect the song will slowly drop off from its current level.

Early First-Week Sales Estimate?

20,000-25,000 copies in the US.

Total Sales Estimate?

50,000-100,000 copies in the US.

This is all assuming that the song will not be promoted to radio. It would likely have a lukewarm reception at pop, but I could see the song doing well at adult contemporary if Gaga chose to promote it. If the song were promoted to radio and it were to garner some non-negligible airplay, then that would drive sales to continue at (or return to) their current level for a few months instead of a few days. In that case, I would revise my total sales projection up to 200,000-300,000 copies. I suspect, however, that this will never be a radio single.

Watch “Till it Happens to You” here, and share your thoughts about its commercial and emotional potential in the comments below!

Update 9/19/15 – Dropped 0.2570, 0.2247, 0.2184, 0.2184. Estimated US sales at one week of current level: 25,012. New estimate for first week sales: 15,000-20,000.

Canada Rules the US Music Market

The Billboard charts are currently being dominated by Canadian artists. Both The Weeknd and Justin Bieber happen to be from Ontario, Canada.

The Weeknd currently leads the Hot 100 for a third non-consecutive week with single “Can’t Feel My Face,” the Billboard 200 with album, Beauty Behind the Madness, and the Artist 100 for overall sheer awesomeness across pretty much all the charts, including social media. For toppers, followup single, “The Hills” simultaneously takes the runner-up slot on the Hot 100.

Justin Bieber, meanwhile, debuted at #1 last week with the lead single from his upcoming album, “What Do You Mean?” This week, it drops to #3, yielding a second week of straight Canadian-born acts in the Top Three of the Hot 100. Last week, Justin Bieber took the #2 slot on the Artist 100, behind the strength of The Weeknd’s massive Beauty Behind the Madness bow (it was the second largest album sales week of the year so far). This week, Bieber drops to #4 on the Artist 100.

Other charts crowned by either Bieber or The Weeknd? Radio Songs, Digital Songs, Twitter Top Tracks, On-Demand Songs, The Social 50, Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs, R&B/Hip-Hop Digital Songs, Hot R&B Songs, R&B Streaming Songs, Top R&B/Hip-Hop Albums, R&B Albums, Rhythmic Songs, and Dance/Electronic Digital Songs.

They are, of course, also ruling the Canadian Hot 100, Canadian Albums, and Canadian Digital Songs Charts. Internationally, they take the #s 1 and 2 slots on the Worldwide iTunes Song Chart per trusted numbers agglomerator website, The Weeknd also rules the Worldwide iTunes Albums chart (Bieber doesn’t have a current album, remember). They are currently at #s 1 and 2 on the US iTunes chart. Using a different methodology, United World Chart still lists Bieber’s as the #1 song in the world, with The Weeknd at #s 3 and 10. On the albums side, United World Chart has The Weeknd down #1-#3.

So, in the end, it might have been an easier undertaking to list the charts that AREN’T being lead by Canadian artists this week.

But wait, you say? Justin Bieber and the Weeknd aren’t really Canadian anymore, since they moved to the US and are now Americans? Yes, that is absolutely correct. They are not so much Canadians as Canadian-Americans. And, of course, neither became international superstars while they were still living in Canada. So, it is pretty clear where the credit should lie.

In the end, betting against America is like betting against the house. We stack the deck in our favor such that we always win in the end. ;P

Haley Reinhart to Release New EP & Single

Haley Reinhart is set to release a new single off of her upcoming extended play (EP) by the end of the year. Who is Haley Reinhart, you ask? Only the single most talented singer ever to be discovered by American Idol. [Aside: to any Glambert readers, Adam Lambert is a stronger artist overall, but Haley’s vocals are objectively better. Exhibit A.]

After coming in third on the tenth season of American Idol, she was signed to Interscope Records for one commercially unsuccessful album. Here is the music video for the lone single that was released. While most American Idol alums end their careers in commercial obscurity (after releasing perhaps one successful album in the immediate aftermath of their season), Haley’s sheer talent pulled her out of the morass. She was able to crowd-source enough funding to put together a not-half-bad music video for original song, “Show Me Your Moves.” Then, she found her element with Postmodern Jukebox, a youtube group that reinterprets songs in various styles, new and old. For example, here is one of their more popular videos, interpreting Lady Gaga’s “Bad Romance” in 1920’s Gatsby style.

Haley’s Postmodern Jukebox cover of Radiohead’s “Creep” blew up the internet, earning her almost 10 million views on youtube and counting. She subsequently recorded several more covers for Postmodern Jukebox, becoming their biggest star. Each song she has recorded for them — Seven Nation Army, All About that Base, Oops I Did it Again, HabitsLovefool (and of course, Creep) — has garnered at least 1.5 million views. Over the past year or so, Haley has been touring as the spotlight of Postmodern Jukebox. On tour, she sings amazing covers of pretty much everything, which you can find on youtube, if you like. See, for example, this cover of John Lennon’s “Imagine.”

In her element, Haley is amazing. It would appear that she has found her element and is prepared to market herself. And that is why it is so exciting that she is finally getting ready to release new original music. In the meantime, she has landed an acting role, playing the voice of a little boy in Netflix’s upcoming animated series, “F is for Family,” out this December. To hear a hilarious sample of her little boy voice, and to hear her chat about her upcoming projects, you can watch the full interview here.

As always, share your thoughts on Haley Reinhart below!


Update: Haley’s EP will apparently be called Better, and her single might be called “Good or Bad.” See an August 7th Instagram post below:

Haley Reinhart Better

Adam Lambert Reaches Peak on Hot 100

Adam Lambert’s lead single “Ghost Town” has apparently reached its peak on the US Billboard Hot 100. In a slow week for debuts, the single rises 72-64, surpassing its prior peak of 67. After rising slowly but consistently up the charts for months, the single has sat languishing in the 70s for some time on the strength of steady increases in radio airplay but held back by stagnant sales and streams.

Although it is still charting at #41 on the US shazam chart, which indicates that a substantial number of people still don’t recognize the song but are interested in it, indicators suggest that the song has already peaked with sales, streaming, and finally radio airplay., which agglomerates country-specific iTunes sales and Mediabase radio airplay data, estimates that Lambert’s single will decline about 6% in sales for the upcoming tracking week. The track, meanwhile, has lost radio airplay at pop and adult pop for three days in a row, and global youtube streams appear to have peaked. Although the song still performs moderately well among pop radio listeners according to mediabase’s callout report, its favorability rating has been shrinking. The callout and shazam numbers point to modest growth at best, and are therefore easily overridden by the data concerning actual airplay, sales, and streams.


Lambert’s single unexpectedly has reached a new peak. That should give Glamberts cause for celebration. “Ghost Town easily outperformed the singles from Lambert’s prior album, Trespassing, and it has done even better overseas, peaking in the Top Ten or Top Twenty in several countries, including a #2 peak in Australia, and a #23 peak in Germany. Future singles off of The Original High will undoubtedly receive a stronger initial reaction from radio programmers, and ultimately, the audience should come to recognize Adam Lambert as the fully-fledged and versatile artist that he is, completely independent of his American Idol roots.

Adam Lambert Spends 11th Week in Top 20 on Australian Singles Chart, Ties “Whataya Want From Me”

5 weeks after a stunning performance on Australia’s version of The Voice landed Adam Lambert about a week at #1 on Australian iTunes and a 16-2 rocket up the official Australian singles chart, Adam Lambert drops 15-17 this week on Australia’s ARIA singles chart. With 11 weeks in the Top 20, Lambert’s current single, “Ghost Town,” ties his biggest global hit to date, “Whataya Want From Me.”

As it turns out, however, Adam’s smaller single in the US and globally, “If I Had You,” was actually the bigger hit in The Land Down Under, pulling in 13 weeks in the Top 20. Can Adam survive for two more weeks in the Top 20? Sound off in the comments below.

Lambert’s album, The Original High,drops 43-50, spending what is likely its last of eleven weeks on the Australian albums chart (at least until another single rockets up the singles chart). You can watch Lambert’s haunting music video for “Ghost Town” here. You can also listen to the presumed (but not officially confirmed) next single, “Another Lonely Night.”

“Another Lonely Night” is the New Single from Adam Lambert | Sometimes Profound

First there were murmurings from South Africa. Then, the song started heating up Polish iTunes and radio as youtube views started taking off. Now, finally, Adam Lambert’s new single is hitting British radio. Here is a tweet from a radio station in Wales:

@redroadmornings We are back! with your requests, a brand new big tune of the week from @adamlambert, a new album of the week from @EllaEyre and a lot more!

This, while “Ghost Town” is still one of the 25 most shazammed songs in the world, and the #36 most shazammed song in the USA.

Adam will likely wait for “Ghost Town” to peak before releasing “Another Lonely Night” in the USA, but it is a clear choice for the next single, and its selection in several other countries (including, apparently, the U.K. now) strongly implies that it will be the next single off the album back here in the USA as well.

“Another Lonely Night” has already overtaken “Ghost Town” on the South African and Polish shazam charts, giving Adam Lambert simultaneously two of the 25 most shazammed songs in Poland. In the USA, “Ghost Town” rises #24-#23 on pop radio airplay (by audience impressions) today, and looks like it will rise to a new peak of #22 tomorrow.

Welcome to Music Industry Sandbox

Are you a “crazy fan?” You know what I mean. Some artists just click with your soul, and you think about them multiple times per day. You maybe google their name occasionally, to see what is up. It drives you nuts that important things could be happening in (insert artist name here)-world, and nobody seems to care. Maybe you have found chat forums for other people who are nuts about the same artist, where you can all echo-chamber your excitement for the artist and your collective anxiety about the artist.

Or maybe, you are like me. You are just a numbers nerd who has discovered the joys of watching certain key aspects of a wonderfully complex game in minute detail and making predictions that later turn out to be accurate more often than not.

Whatever draws you to the Music Industry Sandbox, this is a place where those of us crazy enough about the music industry or some fraction thereof can pool our ideas and our interests to create an engaging environment of discovery and knowledgeable expertise on these subjects that far exceeds the internet’s norm.

At its heart, this site is about connecting numbers nerds and super fans of all artists into a single network where we can all get what our hearts most desire.

I have a large handful of artists that I follow closely, including, for example: Adam Lambert, Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Yelle, Lily Allen, and Madonna. These artists will form the short-term backbone of this site. If you would like me to do some research and crank out some numbers on an artist that you fancy, by all means let me know. If you are interested in becoming a writer for this blog, then shoot me an email at If you have any comments or suggestions, you can either comment on a blog post, or shoot me an email at If you would like to contribute ideas or information to my blog without becoming an actual writer for it, you can either comment on a post, or you can email me at

This blog is part of my Sometimes Profound network of blogs. The main blog,, covers sociopolitical issues and essays on interesting and sometimes obscure topics that people may not have previously considered.