Weekly Recap 3/11: Meghan Trainor v. Ariana Grande

Meghan Trainor‘s new song “No” has been blasting up the radio airplay chart about as quickly as is humanly possible. It gains another 8.391 million audience impressions today for a weekly running total of 62.299 million in its first week (#22).

Meanwhile, “No” has just been overtaken atop iTunes by Ariana Grande‘s new single, “Dangerous Woman,” which is reputedly far more appreciated by fans than was her recent pseudo-hit “Focus” (pseudo because strong early radio airplay reversed sharply when the first Callout reports revealed its deep unpopularity, but the song’s high budget and pristine music video–notice the extraordinary star contact lenses in this post’s featured image–still pulled out nearly 1/2 billion views and adds millions of new views/day, long after the song faded off of radio airplay charts).

Dangerous Woman” is currently selling at nearly twice the rate of the #2 song on iTunes (and still rising), leading to the possibility of a top five debut on the Hot 100, depending on how streaming and radio airplay shape up.

What I’m watching: 1) Will “Dangerous Woman” or “No” ultimately be the bigger hit? 2) Just how much early radio airplay will “Dangerous Woman” ultimately get? 3) Will Who Is Fancy‘s “Boys Like You,” which features BOTH Ariana AND Meghan Trainor, be this year’s Song of the Summer once they start promoting it to radio?

Kelly Clarkson‘s “Piece by Piece,” after debuting at #8 on the Billboard Hot 100 after an emotional performance on the final season of American Idol, is starting to take off during a second run at radio. The track pulled in 8.149 million audience impressions from Adult Pop and Adult Contemporary radio stations during the running week (+418,000 today), as it nears Pop radio’s top 40. Second week sales are dropping about 50% to 98,000 for the week ending 3/10.

Adam Lambert Speaking of American Idol, the greatest-earning alumnus of 2015 will be performing next week for “a very special final performance.” “Ghost Town,” the lead single from Adam’s latest album, The Original High, actually has more Youtube views than the lead singles from the latest albums of Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood, and on Spotify it has done even better, at 118 million streams. Adam Lambert is in the middle of his The Original High Tour.

What I’m Watching: Is Adam about to unveil title track “The Original High” as the set’s next single (as I have argued he should)? If so, will it go over a fraction as well as just did Kelly Clarkson’s “Piece By Piece?”

Sia‘s “Cheap Thrills” debuts on Pop radio today with 1.463 million running weekly audience impressions. Week over week (US) sales are steady at 7,000/week, as are Spotify streams at about 416,000/day. The lyric video continues to post steady gains.

Rihanna reaches a new peak of #3 on radio with “Work” (145.73 million running weekly audience impressions, +1.858 million today). With substantial leads, at 181.358 million and 201.788 million, respectively, it is unclear that Rihanna’s song will maintain sufficient steam to continue rising past Twenty One Pilot’s “Stressed Out” or Justin Bieber’s “Love Yourself.” It depends on how high Rihanna’s song is going to rise before peaking, and on how fast the former two songs fall.

Rihanna concurrently extends a record stay of non-American artists atop the Hot 100 (Rihanna is from Barbados; featured artist, Drake, is from Canada).

Work“‘s music video crosses 100 million views today, after just over two weeks, as it continues to pull in over 4 million views/day.

Selena Gomez‘s “Hands to Myself” slides #11 to #15 on the Hot 100 this week, with an overall points decline featuring a 6% sales slide from 41,000 to 38,000, despite continued steady gains at radio. The song rises #10 – #9 this week with 98.385 million running weekly audience impressions (+1.056 million today). It is also expected to overtake two more songs within about one week, if current trends hold. It seems doubtful, however, that “Hands to Myself” will continue rising long enough to match the #3 and #4 radio peaks of earlier Revival singles “Same Old Love” and “Good for You,” respectively. I forecast a peak of either #6 or #7 for “Hands to Myself,” with the edge to #7.

Lady Gaga‘s “Til It Happens to You” has finally debuted at #95 on the Hot 100, based largely on the strength of a sales bump after her emotional Oscars performance. “Til It Happens to You” sold about 26,000 copies after peaking at #8 on iTunes (higher than Sam Smith’s “Writing’s On The Wall,” which won the award for which “Til It Happens to You” was nominated).

Taylor Swift‘s “New Romantics” appears to be slowing down WAY EARLY, before even reaching the top 40 on radio songs. Basically all of Taylor Swift’s singles peaked with 170+ million audience impressions until “Out of the Woods” peaked early at #18 with only 68.848 million audience impressions, never even passing immediately preceding single “Wildest Dreams.”

“New Romantics” has only 36.144 million audience impressions at #62, and it’s daily gain has already dropped below 1 million. In fact, “Wildest Dreams” (now two singles ago) is still getting almost 70 million audience impressions at #17 after peaking with just over 180 million.

Interestingly enough, “Style,” which is the only song prior to “Wildest Dreams” to have a lower radio peak, actually retains the highest continuing radio airplay of the album’s first four singles, by a good margin.

Current running weekly radio airplay of Taylor Swift 1989 singles:

  1. (5th, #5 Hot 100 peak) “Wildest Dreams,” #17, 68.098m, -572,000 today, peak: 180.290m.
  2. (7th, #71) “New Romantics,” #62, 36.577m, +778,000 today, peak: 36.577m.
  3. (3rd, #7) “Style,” #86, 25.567m, +47,000 today, peak: 178.862m.
  4. (2nd, #1) “Blank Space,” #104, 20.181m, +98,000 today, peak 198.131m.
  5. (1st, #1) “Shake It Off,”#109, 17.950m, -195,000 today, peak: 195.501m.
  6. (4th, #1) “Bad Blood,” #125, 14.879m, +56,000 today, peak: 195.179m.
  7. (6th, #18*) “Out of the Woods,” #297, 5.305m, -284,000 today, peak: 68.848m.

*”Out of the Woods” peaked at #18 based on sales when it was released as a promotional single prior to the release of 1989. It never surpassed this rank when it was released as a radio single.

What I’m Watching: What happens when TS releases a music video for “New Romantics?” Does she even bother?