Sia’s “Cheap Thrills” is Charting at Pop Radio

Cheap Thrills,” the second single off of Sia’s This is Acting, has finally reached #50 on Pop radio airplay. The track debuts with 465 running weekly spins (+158 over the past week) representing 1.416 million weekly audience impressions.

The song concurrently charts at #225 on iTunes (about 7,000 sales in the week ending 3/10); #24 on US Spotify (daily) (+1 today; 392,813 streams, -1,358 today); #31 on US Spotify (weekly) (+16 for the week ending 3/3; 2,469,035 streams, +434,468 for the week); #14 on Global Spotify (daily) (+1 today; 1,672,557 streams, +53,648 today); and #24 on Global Spotify (weekly) (+9 for the week ending 3/3; 9,448,660 streams, +2,212,701 for the week).

The lyric video for “Cheap Thrills” has 12,557,686 views since its February 10th, 2016 release. It set a new high on Saturday, 3/5/16, when it earned 660,625 daily views. So far, it has averaged 444,168 views/day.

Screen Shot 2016-03-09 at 10.43.39 AM

The official audio for “Cheap Thrills” has 11,973,257 views since 12/16/15.

Screen Shot 2016-03-09 at 10.43.20 AM

In it’s fourth charting week, “Cheap Thrills” is at #91 (+6 this week) on the US Billboard Hot 100 (which ranks songs’ overall success in terms of weekly sales, streaming, and radio airplay), closing in on its initial sales-driven debut at #81. The song dropped off the Hot 100 in its second week of availability.

Analysis

Cheap Thrills“‘s lyric video has a strong Youtube view-curve, with consistently increasing views and no visible deterioration. Frequently a Youtube release will feature a local high on the day of or in the days immediately following its release, followed by a consistent downward pressure as public interest in the spectacle of the music video deteriorates. A song that gets substantial radio airplay tends to at least slow in its descent for a time, and may reverse course if radio airplay is sufficient. “Cheap Thrills” features essentially NO initial interest bump, and instantaneously began rising, driven by radio airplay.

There are three reasons for this that immediately stand out to me. 1) The lyric video is not “exciting” to the audience, except insofar as it is the thing that pops up when they want to stream the song. This would preclude the existence of an initial interest bump, and would forecast a view-curve entirely or almost entirely by radio airplay. 2) Although US radio is just starting to play Sia’s song, Youtube views are agglomerated on an international basis. Clearly, “Cheap Thrills” is getting a substantial amount of attention overseas. 3) Sia did not substantially promote the release of her “Cheap Thrills” lyric video beyond merely posting it on her Youtube page. In the absence of controversy or substantial media buzz, the video is left to stand on its own two feet as a carrier for the song itself.

Overall, the song has a robust view-curve with a clear positive trajectory, representing substantial and increasing international attention. Since radio airplay for the single is increasing in the United States, we should expect continued growth for the foreseeable future. At this time, there is insufficient data on US radio airplay over time to predict the song’s long-term trajectory.

However, unless the song begins to accelerate substantially, I would hesitate to forecast a much stronger long-term performance than for Sia’s recent David Guetta collaboration, “Bang My Head,” which peaked at #76 on the Hot 100.

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Weekly Recap: Madonna’s Touring $Ms and $Bs; Kelly Clarkson & Lady Gaga Sales Bounces

Kelly Clarkson’s “Piece by Piece” is approximately still #1 on iTunes one week after a touching American Idol performance. 

After you combine sales of the album version of the song with sales of the American Idol performance recording, “Piece by Piece” sales have just barely started to fall below those of Rihanna’s current #1 hit, “Work.” Kworb.net now projects 202,000 total sales for “Piece by Piece” over the tracking week ending March 3rd, 2016, compared to aggregate sales of 160,000 for “Work.”

With its massive radio airplay and streaming factored in, Rihanna’s “Work” will still easily retain the #1 position on the Hot 100, but don’t be surprised to see Kelly Clarkson in the top 5 when the new chart is revealed early next week.

In other news, “Piece by Piece” leaps onto the 50-song rolling Adult Pop radio airplay chart at #46 today with 286 weekly spins, representing 2.459 million audience impressions. After the strong reaction to her American Idol performance, it appears that Kelly’s label is once again promoting the song to radio. Watch for a debut on Pop songs too, plus a slow scaling of both charts over the coming weeks and months.

What I’m watching: Where is this song going to be in a month? How quickly does it gain radio airplay, and to what extent does radio airplay drive continued sales? Does this song get a little bit of token radio airplay, and then peter off once people get over her American Idol performance, or does it slowly build to a substantial radio hit? If this song does become a real radio hit, then what are the implications for Kelly Clarkson’s career, which until recently seemed to be fading?

Madonna Grosses $107.3M From Rebel Heart Tour & $1.24B for a 3rd place in all-time touring revenue, after only U2 ($1.6B) and The Rolling Stones ($1.8B). 

The other acts with $1B+ in touring revenue? Elton John $1.05B and Bon Jovi $1.03B.

Per Billboard, Madonna raked in another $19.3 million in touring revenue in January, bringing her Rebel Heart Tour total to $107.3 million. Suppose Madonna gets to pocket 30% of that total => her total cut is $32.19 million.

Suppose your name is Adele, and you sell more albums than any man has ever sold before: 8 million albums at $10.99/each => $87.92 million gross revenue. Suppose Adele gets 10% of that revenue => her total cut = $8.792 million.

This is why Madonna, whose songs are no longer played on the radio, and whose most recent album didn’t produce a single top 40 hit on the Hot 100, makes more money than Adele. Adele hasn’t been touring, and that is where the money is at.

Adele will, of course “remedy” that situation shortly.

What I’m watching: With two months of touring revenue still to be counted, could the Queen of Pop break $150M?

Lady Gaga Reaches Top 10 on iTunes

Kelly Clarkson isn’t the only one heating up iTunes sales. After an emotional Oscars performance surrounded by other survivors of sexual assault, Gaga saw the biggest iTunes sales bump, reaching #8 with her passion-project “Til it Happens to You” (featured on The Hunting Ground).

Gaga sold an estimated 27,000 copies during the tracking week, good for a debut somewhere in the bottom half of next week’s Hot 100, considering that it is paired with modest streaming and radio airplay.

Bottom line? Gaga has pulled off one more non-controversial and highly public performance, helping her worm her way back into the public’s good graces and maintaining a sky-high visibility. This places her in an extremely good position for her next album drop.

What I’m watching for: LG5, of course.

Trivia Question

Last Week: Lady Gaga has been drafted to sing at the Super Bowl and the Grammys. Last year, when Katy Perry performed the Super Bowl Half Time Show, she brought out a surprise guest. Do you remember who that guest was? Bonus point if you know the name and peak position on the Hot 100 of the only single she has since released.

Missy Elliott; “WTF;” #22 Hot 100 peak.

This Week: How much did Madonna’s MDNA Tour gross?

 

 

 

Weekly Recap 2/12: Grammys, The Weeknd, Adele, Rihanna, Adam Lambert, Jordan Smith, Selena Gomez, Who Is Fancy, Lady Gaga, Haley Reinhart, Taylor Swift, Twenty One Pilots, Ariana Grande, Coldplay, Beyonce, Michael Jackson, Songs of the Summer 2016!

What I’m watching —

Grammys

This year’s Grammy awards are coming up Monday, February 15th at 5:00PM, right in the middle of a tracking week. The Grammys being the Grammys, they should spur large sales bumps for artists that perform or are nominated for (or win) awards. I am watching the numbers on two artists in particular: The Weeknd and Adele.

The Weeknd – After a string of massive hits, The Weeknd’s current single, “In the Night” just missed the top 10 on the Hot 100, peaking for two weeks at #12. However, the song is currently just starting to decline from peak radio airplay (#5 on radio songs; #3 on pop). It peaked with 135.352 million weekly audience impressions several days ago, and has fallen to 127.857 million weekly audience impressions as of yesterday. Given its continued strong radio airplay, The Weeknd will be in a strong position to leap into the top ten on the Hot 100 with its Grammy’s boost.

The Weeknd is currently selling about 20k copies/week of “In the Night.” It is getting about 2,586,206 weekly Spotify streams. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that it is getting 5 million total weekly streams (that Spotify streams make up about half of the total.

Since the Weeknd is both nominated for a lot of awards (Best Pop Solo Performance; Best R&B Performance; Best R&B Song; Best Urban Contemporary Album; Best Song Written for Visual Media; as well as two of the big three: Record of the Year; and Album of the Year) AND slated to perform “In the Night” at the Grammys, we should expect a fairly large sales boost for “In the Night.” I would be shocked if weekly sales didn’t AT LEAST double, and I would be unsurprised if they jumped up to the 80k-100k range.

Streams should see a smaller boost. I would expect a +50% boost to perhaps 7.5 million streams in the Grammys tracking week.

I would note that in past years, the first few hours after the Grammys (when a substantial chunk of the bump tends to occur) have been in a different tracking week from the rest of the week following the Grammys. With essentially the entire post-Grammys bump crammed into a single tracking week, we should expect to see a larger post-Grammys bump than in years past.

The takeaway: Don’t be surprised if The Weeknd adds a fifth US top 10 hit to his resume thanks to to the fortuitous timing of the Grammys.

Adele – Adele’s “When We Were Young” is also a strong bet to surge into the top ten following what is sure to be a stirring performance on the Grammys.

After she finally released the song to streaming services and released cover art, it started picking up steam again on radio (where it had stalled at #10). Adele added 1.406 million audience impressions per week today, for a current total of 92.749 million audience impressions over the past week, about half that of the #1 song (Justin Bieber’s “Love Yourself,” which grew by 1.193 million weekly audience impressions today, for a total of 173.683 million over the past seven days). That is up from only 906,000 in weekly audience growth yesterday, and an actual 169,000 decline four days ago.

In sharp contrast to “Hello,” which is still raging away at 6 million global youtube views/day, “When We Were Young” has declined to under 500,000/day. “Hello” is at 1.15 billion total views; “When We Were Young” is only at 79 million. I mean, that’s almost embarrassing. This is Adele. ZAYN’s new video got that many views in two weeks. Now that Adele has released the song for streaming and single artwork, is she finally ready to drop a real music video for the song and sprinkle a little bit of that Adele dust to make it light up the charts?

If Adele were to drop a music video in connection with a stunning Grammys performance, then it would be difficult to see how she could avoid shooting into the top ten on the Hot 100. Even absent a new music video, however, it is entirely conceivable that “When We Were Young” could more than double its current weekly sales total of 40,000, and shoot into the top ten anyways. We’ll just have to sit tight and see what happens.

What else to watch for: How do Adele’s album sales hold up as “Hello” drops off radio charts? Does she keep releasing singles and promoting them with killer music videos? Do pure album sales stay over the 100,000/week mark for the 19 weeks that it would now take 25 to sell 10 million pure album sales? Does 25 ultimately end up selling as many or more copies than did 2121 sold another 10,766 pure album sales in the most recent tracking week. Is that going to be the norm over the coming year, or will its sales slide faster than those of 25? If they hold up like that, 21 would sell another half-million copies this year.

Performers:

  • Taylor Swift
  • Adele (performing her new single “When We Were Young)
  • The Weeknd
  • Kendrick Lamar
  • Demi Lovato, Meghan Trainor, John Legend and Luke Bryan (Lionel Richie Tribute)
  • Little Big Town
  • Pitbull, Robin Thicke and Travis Barker
  • Justin Bieber, Diplo and Skrillex
  • Sam Hunt and Carrie Underwood
  • Ellie Goulding and Andra Day
  • Lady Gaga (Tribute to David Bowi)
  • Tori Kelly and James Bay
  • Rihanna
  • Eagles, Bernie Leadon and Jackson Browne (Tribute to Glenn Frey)
  • Miguel and Greg Phillinganes
  • The Hollywood Vampires (Tribute to Lemmy of Motorhead)
  • Gary Clark Jr., Bonnie Raitt and Chris Stapleton (Tribute to B.B. King)
  • Alabama Shakes
  • The Cast of “Hamilton”

Presenters:

  • Common
  • Ice Cube and O’Shea Jackson Jr.
  • Anna Kendrick
  • Ryan Seacrest
  • James Corden
  • Stephen Colbert
  • Kaley Cuoco
  • Ariana Grande
  • Selena Gomez
  • Anna Kendrick
  • Seth MacFarlane
  • Ed Sheeran
  • Sam Smith

Other Stuff to Watch

Rihanna – “Work” is continuing to rage up radio charts (to #15 overall), up 1.877 million weekly audience impressions today to a total of 73.633 million over the past week. Still, that is a dropoff from the 3 million weekly audience impressions/week increase that was the norm over the second week of release.

Daily increase in weekly audience impressions for “Work” in reverse chronological order (dating back to the 9th day of release): 1.877m, 2.1m, 2.7m, 3.1m, 3.2m, 3.9m, 3.2m, 2.6m.

Driven by  a strong response at radio, “Work” is back to #2 on iTunes, with estimated sales of 99,000 for the week ending yesterday. That is behind only Flo Rida’s “My House” which sold about 127,000 copies. Strong sales and increasing radio airplay put Rihanna in a good position to remain in the top ten of the Hot 100 for the foreseeable future.

Will she make it to #1? Perhaps, but not this week. 160k sales were only sufficient to propel her to #7 last week, and her increasing radio airplay and streaming isn’t likely to make up for a 61k drop in sales. Perhaps she can squeeze into the #1 slot if she has a strong Grammys bump, or she can maintain strong enough sales as radio airplay builds in coming weeks to capitalize on the eventual decline of the current hits. Alternately, she might amass sufficient streaming if/when she debuts a music video for “Work” to propel it to #1.

REMEMBER: Streaming is currently the biggest of the three components (streaming, sales, and radio impressions) of Billboard’s Hot 100. 

Parent album Anti is less of a success story. After one million albums were given away, it managed to rise to #1 on the Billboard 200 (and Hot Album Sales) after one full week of sales (166,000 album equivalents including 124,000 pure album sales). This week, the album is set to drop to #4 and #7 on the Billboard 200 and Album Sales charts respectively, with 92,553 equivalent units including only 47,644 pure album sales. For comparison, Adele’s 25, which has already sold 8 million copies in the United States, is reported to have sold another 105,852 pure albums in its 12th tracking week (126,077 total equivalent units).

What to watch for: Does “Work” keep declining in radio audience impression growth, or does it stabilize and/or reverse course?

Adam Lambert – With a solo tour underway this Spring, Adam Lambert obviously has a lot on his plate. But, he has also planned a separate tour for this Summer as Queen + Adam Lambert. Add in an Oreo commercial and a presumptive appearance in some capacity on the final season of the show which gave birth to his star, and you aren’t looking at a slacker.

In other news: “Ghost Town” was recently certified gold in the United States, for shipments of 500,000 units (I have previously estimated a global total of easily 1 million units), Adam was named (by Forbes) the top-earning American Idol alum of 2015 ($10 million), he was invited to star in Fox’s remake of The Rocky Horror Picture Show. His tour is really selling tickets. He also finally officially fessed up to having had his voice insured for $48 million. He has been nominated for the GLAAD award for Outstanding Music Artist (full list of nominees). Oh yeah, and he is currently in the lead to win, once more, the title of “Most Eligible Bachelor” from Out Magazine (feel free to increase his vote total here).

Ghost Town” (with 58,602,994) still has more than twice as many YouTube views as The Weeknd’s current hit, “In the Night,” (25,917,537) which, as mentioned above, is slated to smash into the top ten on Billboard (“Ghost Town” peaked at #64). “Ghost Town” also maintains a strong lead in terms of global spotify streams (113,861,560 v. 73,351,971). This is, of course, just one more sign that “Ghost Town” ultimately achieved a very legitimate degree of success on the international stage, despite its slow ascent and mediocre peak in the US.

It is also fascinating that both songs ultimately have many more Spotify streams than Youtube, counter to the ordinary trend. Adele, for example, has only 394,659,764 Spotify streams for “Hello,” despite having racked up well over 1 billion via Youtube.

With all of this success, what exactly is it that we should be watching for in Adam Lambert World? Well, since current single, “Another Lonely Night” has started dropping off radio airplay charts, it is time to start looking towards the next single. As I have previously argued in detail, “The Original High” is a clear choice for Adam’s next single, and his label should start promoting it to radio soon if they want to give it a real chance to take off during the summer. At the same time, they should wait to release the music video after the song has built up to a critical threshold of radio airplay, then they should drop a music video designed to reinvigorate the song’s chart-life just in time for the summer months. Adam should especially consider using the sold-out concerts of his tours as an effective advertising medium for his song while he has the chance. I personally LOVE “The Original High.” It is the heart of his album, and it would be a shame if it weren’t given a chance to be a smash.

 

Jordan Smith – has announced the debut of his first album March 18th. Jordan Smith recently won The Voice after becoming the first contestant to ever send a song to the iTunes top 10 every single week of the Live Rounds. In fact, he managed three times to hit #1, including stealing the honor with “Great Is Thy Faithfulness” of being the first person to unseat Adele’s “Hello” from the top spot during its initial run while it was still selling like hotcakes (it was selling around 400,000/week at the time that it was momentarily unseated by “Great Is Thy Faithfulness”). As opposed to now (60k/week, #8), when “Hello” is just selling like… luke-warm cakes…?

Lead track “Stand in the Light” is currently at #87 on iTunes and rising. Check out his past chart performance below:

Title Album details Peak chart positions Debut Week Sales
US Billboard 200 CAN
The Voice: Jordan Smith: The Complete Season 9 Collection 11 48 US: 48,000[23]
Title Year Peak Chart Positions Debut week Sales
US Billboard Hot 100 US Hot Christian Songs
Halo 2015 88
Great Is Thy Faithfulness 30 1
Hallelujah 61 1
Somebody to Love 21
Mary Did You Know 24 1
Climb Every Mountain 72
God Only Knows
(with Adam Levine)
90

Selena Gomez – “Hands To Myself” rises #33-#29 today on weekly radio audience impressions (57.476 million; +1.518 million). At its current rate of increase, it should reach the top 10 on radio songs within the next month. Sales are down 61k – 47k for the week ending 2/11. Daily Spotify streams are at 609,632 (#10 in the US).

What to watch: Is radio airplay increasing fast enough to continue driving sales, or will sales continue to deflate?

Who Is Fancy – “Boys Like You” (feat. Meghan Trainor and Ariana Grande) is apparently being planned as this summer’s big breakout hit.

With two huge-name featured artist billings and a clear pop sound, it is not conceivable that this song is being promoted to radio without debuting on a single chart. The only logical explanation is that it is not being promoted yet. Why? Probably because the song has an obvious summer vibe. The labels want to break out a new star, and summer is the best time to do it.

More evidence? Both Meghan Trainor AND Ariana Grande had breakout moments in the summer. To be fair, Ariana Grande was already quite famous before “Problem” became the #2 song of Summer 2014, but that song is easily her biggest hit to date, and was the beginning of her current reign as a true A-list pop star. Meghan Trainor, of course, rode the tidal wave of her infectious hit “All About that Base” in 2015.

Other artists that have broken out with a massive summer smash?

2014 Iggy Azalea “Fancy” feat. Charli XCX

2014 MAGIC! “Rude

2013 Robin Thicke “Blurred Lines

2012 Carly Rae Jepsen “Call Me Maybe

2012 Gotye “Somebody That I Used to Know

2011 Adele “Rolling in the Deep

2008 Katy Perry “I Kissed a Girl

Remember this in six months: I predicted this song would be a summer smash long before it ever debuted on an airplay chart.

Lady Gaga – After her extremely well-received Super Bowl performance, everybody is once again amazed  to discover that Gaga has pipes.

Her passion project, “Til It Happens to You,” after acquiring an Oscar nomination for Best Original Song and a Grammy nomination for Best Song Written for Visual Media, has finally officially debuted on a Billboard airplay chart (although it previously topped Dance Club Songs), and its music video now has over 25 million views. Gaga is also nominated for a Grammy and she just WON a Golden Globe (for her role as The Countess in American Horror Story).

By the way, in case you haven’t heard, by performing at 1) the Super Bowl, 2) the Grammys, and 3) the Oscars all in the same year, Gaga is setting a new record.

So, after all of the toned down performances over the past year that have shown off Gaga’s vocal chops, is that what we should expect from her album out later this year? I don’t think so. I think we should expect pure pop. We should expect Lady Gaga in all of her manipulative glory, fighting to stay relevant in the music industry by setting new trends. We should expect killer hooks and solid beats. We should expect a mix of styles and sounds, but carefully crafted together into a cohesive whole. Gaga has a long history of producing killer radio fodder, and we should expect her to do it again. She went wrong when she got stuck in her head. Now, she is back to the killer Gaga who tore her way to fame in 2008 simply by acting like somebody famous and pushing the media into a frenzy.

Haley Reinhart – She’s returning as a guest judge to American Idol and she is supposedly releasing a new album soon.

Taylor Swift – Current single, “Out of the Woods” is slipping at radio far earlier than any of the prior singles. Now that everyone has bought 1989, and now that the singles aren’t selling well no matter how much radio airplay they get, does TS continue releasing them and promoting them to radio? Or does she hold off until the next album, when there will be something for her to sell?

For most artists, it would be a no brainer — you keep releasing singles as long as they are still getting mass airplay, especially since she is planning on going on hiatus after this album. But, what does she have to gain from more radio airplay exposure? She keeps selling a few more singles and albums, but not that many. And, it isn’t like it is going to make the shows on her tour any more sold out, or the anticipation for her next album any more pronounced. Quite simple, Taylor has reached the ceiling. She is basically the second biggest pop star in the world, and she has virtually no room for further growth.

Twenty One Pilots – With “Stressed Out” (167.419 million weekly audience impressions; +1.427 million weekly audience impressions today) rising faster at radio than Justin Bieber’s “Love Yourself”(173.683 million weekly audience impressions; +1.193 million weekly audience impressions today), and with a fairly small gap between them to begin with (6.264 million), it is not inconceivable that “Stressed Out” should eventually take the radio crown from “Love Yourself.” With radio airplay driving sales and streams, it is only a short step to the overall crown on the Hot 100. At their current rates, “Stressed Out” would overtake “Love Yourself” in about 21 days, or 3 weeks. Will another song push in before “Stressed Out” has a chance to take the crown? Will Bieber fend off the challenger after all?

What to watch for? See if the gap between “Stressed Out” and “Love Yourself”‘s rate of increase at radio tends to widen or narrow over the coming days.

By the way, does Twenty One Pilots remind you of Macklemore & Ryan Lewis? Or am I just being racist against all white rappers?

Ariana Grande – When is the new album coming out? Is she scrapping stuff and reworking her album after “Focus” got a lukewarm welcome? Keep in mind that, radio flop or not, “Focus” is still easily Grande’s biggest Youtube hit to date in terms of daily views.

Also? Freaking amazing star eyes:

Screen Shot 2015-10-31 at 6.39.30 PM

I have to say, it was probably one of if not THE best-produced music videos of the year.

Coldplay – After a Super Bowl performance that was largely derided and overshadowed by the sideshows of Lady Gaga, Beyonce, and Bruno Mars, some people have been wondering whether Coldplay had the requisite stature and popularity to be chosen to headline the half-time show in the first place. As it turns out, Coldplay has more cred than I would have guessed. Coldplay has sold about 59 million albums worldwide (they are on their 7th release). Four of their past five albums have reached #1 on the Billboard 200; the last made a very respectable debut at #2 (195,000 pure album sales, 210,000 equivalent units) behind Adele’s third week of blockbuster 25 sales (695,000 in pure album sales; 728,000 album equivalents). For comparison, this upcoming week’s #1 album, Future’s EVOL, should only have about 139,106 equivalent units (108,403 pure album sales).

Oh. Oops.  I’m so sorry, Coldplay. It appears that up above, for the words “Super Bowl,” I accidentally linked to the most viewed Youtube video (12 million views) for this year’s super bowl half-time performance… you know… the one featuring “Bruno Mars & Beyonce ONLY.” Here is a link to the full half-time show (500,000 views), including Coldplay…

Back to stats: Coldplay has sold 18.2 million albums and 33.6 million single downloads in the United States. How many hit singles has Coldplay had in the United States?

#1s: 1

Top tens: 3

Top 20s: 7

Top 40s: 13

Top 100s: 21

Coldplay is a UK band. How much better do they perform “across the pond?”

#1s: 2

Top tens: 16

Top 20s: 18

Top 40s: 22

Top 100s: 30

So, Coldplay is more of an international artist than a US artist, but they still make a respectable showing here.

Compare Beyonce’s US hits:

#1s: 5 (+4 more with Destiny’s Child)

Top tens: 15 (+10)

Top 20s: 23 (+11)

Top 40s: 27 (+13)

Top 100s: 42 (+14)

And Bruno Mars’s US hits:

#1s: 6

Top tens: 12

Top 20s: 13

Top 40s: 15

Top 100s: 18

And Lady Gaga’s US hits:

#1s: 3

Top tens: 13

Top 20s: 15

Top 40s: 17

Top 100s: 21

It’s not hard to see how Coldplay was upstaged…

Still, A Head Full of Dreams makes a 300% leap to almost 100,000 album equivalent units, good for a #16-#3 projected jump on the Billboard 200. In terms of pure album sales, the leap is 389% (#12-#3; 89,819 pure albums).

Beyonce – She released a hot new track just as she showed up Coldplay at the Super Bowl. “Formation” already has 23 million views in 6 days, despite being available only to those with a direct link to the video. On radio, the track rises #133-#108 today with a 3.932 million weekly audience increase to 17.688 million.

What to watch for? So far, the song hasn’t debuted on Pop Songs or Adult Pop. If it stays largely confined to genre charts, then its ascent at radio will have a ceiling.

Michael Jackson – After Spike Lee released a documentary, and Beyoncé paid tribute in a well-received Super Bowl performance, the King of Pop’s songs saw a miniature sales resurgence, lead by “The Way You Make Me Feel,” which sold 3,000 copies in the last tracking week.

What to watch for: With singer, Miguel slated to pay tribute on Monday’s Grammys with a cover of “She’s Out of My Life,” I for one will be watching the sales bounce.

TRIVIA QUESTION

Answer to last week’s question: Elton John’s “Candle in the Wind/Something About the Way You Look Tonight” sold 3,446,000 physical copies in its first week in 1997. It also sold 1,212,000 in its second week. Those are the only two sales frames in which a physical single sold more than 1 million copies in a week. Adele’s first week with “Hello” (1.1 million) is the only sales frame in which a digital single has sold more than 1 million copies. The previous record-holder on the digital side? Flo Rida’s “Right Round” sold 636,000 in a week in 2009.

This week’s question: What artist has had the largest CONSECUTIVE run at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 over the past two years (including on different songs)?

(Kinda) Weekly Recap

What I’m Watching This Week – 

Gwen Stefani/The Voice

The Voice seems to be making a habit of taking over iTunes once a week. Performers locked up almost the entire top ten of iTunes for a while, leaving only Justin Bieber and Adele untouched. If you agglomerate The Voice‘s sales over time, and think about it as a single artist, you’ve got a pretty consistent top-tier artist.

After Voice judge Gwen Stefani performed her current single “Used to Love You” on the show, it also saw a serious sales spike. Now, after most of the actual contestant’s songs have started dropping, increasing radio airplay and a second sales spike has propped Gwen up to #3 on iTunes.

“Used to Love You” sits at #24 on Pop airplay (3852 weekly spins, +52 today, +407 past week; 15.967 million weekly audience impressions, +390,000 today); #14 on Adult Pop/HAC (2100 weekly spins, +45 today, +284 past week; 10.134 million weekly audience impressions, +120,000 today); and #47 on Adult Contemporary (37 weekly spins, -2 today, -20 past week; 155,000 weekly audience impressions, +3,000 today). It is at #63 in terms of overall radio audience impressions (27.510 million weekly audience impressions, +605,000 today; 6846 all-format spins, +138). At its current rate of increase, it would be a top-20 radio hit within 2 months and a top-20 radio hit within 5 months.

On the song’s release, I said “Used to Love You” would be Gwen Stefani’s comeback hit, and today I stand by that prediction.

Adele

Basically she broke all the records. Almost. Seriously, though, there are a few more amazing ones that she looks about to break. See all the Adele articles. Radio audience impressions for “Hello” are still rising,  and youtube views have barely slowed at all, still over 10 million/day even as the clip has already been viewed more than half a billion views globally.

Elle King’s fabulous “Ex’s and Oh’s”

Still rising on radio; #4-#3 today with a 1.8 million weekly audience impressions gain to 134.9 million.

Canadian Domination

Thanks mostly to Justin Bieber, Canadian artists are still dominating 70% of the top 10 of the US Billboard Hot 100. With Brit, Adele, still raging at #1, the top American act in America is currently Meghan Trainor’s “Like I’m Gonna Lose You” at #8.

Meghan Trainor

Speaking of which, “Like I’m Gonna Lose You” reverses a dangerous trend of declining singles for burgeoning global superstar Meghan Trainor. Frequently, for a number of reasons, the lead single from an album peaks highest, and each subsequent single has a lower peak than the last. After breakout single “All About that Base” spent 8 weeks at #1 on the Hot 100, Meghan Trainor’s other singles seemed to be merely riding that single declining wave. But, “Like I’m Gonna Lose You” A) was released more than a year after “All About that Base,” and B) has pushed well into the top 10 with continuing strong gains at radio even after previous singles “Dear Future Husband” and “Marvin Gaye” peaked at #s 14 and 21 respectively. Admittedly, “Marvin Gaye” was technically a Charlie Puth song that just happened to feature Meghan Trainor. But, it follows up Charlie Puth’s “See You Again,” which you might recall was one of the biggest #1 hits of this year and a rival to 2014’s “All About that Base.”

“Like I’m Gonna Lose You” moves #9-#8 today in overall audience impressions (119.9 million, +1.218 million). It is one of the ten greatest gainers.

Justin Bieber‘s “Sorry

Basically, this entire album is an apology to the American people for growing up to be such a douchebag. But, the apology was accepted. It may not be clear from the whole Adele overshadow thing, but Justin Bieber practically the biggest success story of the year. After “What Do You Mean” became Bieber’s first #1 hit on its debut, and then followed up with sustained massive radio airplay, Bieber took his album Purpose to the biggest debut of the year (until Adele happened the next week), seriously trouncing One Direction in what many thought was going to be a close fight (One Direction had an early pre order lead, but their music is basically shit, and Justin Bieber’s current album is grudgingly sonic bliss). Bieber’s album (unlike 1-D’s) had a relatively modest second-week drop-off, and will end the year on a strong note. Bieber’s second single “Sorry” debuted at #2 on the Hot 100 on similar strength to “What do You Mean” because Adele decided to drop a single the same week and literally shatter all-time records. But, as testament to Bieber’s strength, he has now become one of a tiny handful of artists to have three songs in the top five of the Hot 100 AT THE SAME TIME, as non-single “Love Yourself” debuted with massive sales. Then, Bieber decided to make a new record for # of songs in the Hot 100 at once, when literally every single song off of his album decided to chart during his debut week, most of which are still there for a second week.

Anyways, “Sorry” is currently getting 6-8 million global views/day on YouTube, while “What do You Mean” is still getting about 4 million/day. “Sorry”at #7 is the greatest gainer on radio today (125.587 million weekly audience impressions, +3.393 million; 20,093 weekly spins, +716 today). “What Do You Mean” is at #10 on radio, overall, and is dropping. “Sorry” is charting on Pop, HAC/Adult Pop, Rhythmic, and Spanish formats.

Selena Gomez’s “Same Old Love” 

I’m seriously obsessed with this song. It just speaks to my soul (sonically). Anyways, it nears 100 million audience impressions for #12 on overall radio (+1.688 million today, for 5th greatest-gainer). It has also risen to #6 on iTunes, and might sell 70k for the week ending 12/3.

Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas” 

As the solo artist with the most all time #1 US hits, Mariah Carey has just one song that still sells well and gets airplay. Every Christmas, the classic song comes back to invade the public consciousness once more. The question on my mind is: how big will its bump be this year? How much will it sell? How many YouTube views will it get?

On iTunes, it it already at #21, just below Shawn Mende’s recent #1 pop hit “Stitches.”

Here is basically a picture of the Christmas season over time. For reference, the song got about 700,000 views on December 1st.

Screen Shot 2015-12-03 at 2.11.02 PM

Adam Lambert’s “Another Lonely Night”

Adam Lambert continues to post modest gains on the Adult Pop radio format (crossing the 2 million audience impression/week threshold today), and he has been getting sufficient ads at pop stations that he should start charting on that format within, perhaps, the next week. Here is Adam Lambert’s performance to date on Adult Pop with “Another Lonely Night:”
11/13 Friday: #NA; 235 weekly spins; +108 week-over-week weekly spins; 895,000 weekly audience impressions.
11/14 Saturday: #50; 252 weekly spins (+17); +109 week-over-week weekly spins (+1); 903,000 weekly audience impressions (+8,000).
11/15 Sunday: #48 (+2); 275 weekly spins (+23); +113 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 949,000 weekly audience impressions (+46,000).
11/16 Monday: #41 (+7); 297 weekly spins (+22); +119 week-over-week weekly spins (+6); 993,000 weekly audience impressions (+44,000).
11/17 Tuesday: #39 (+2); 314 weekly spins (+17); +121 week-over-week weekly spins (+2); 1,035,000 weekly audience impressions (+42,000).
11/18 Wednesday: #38 (+1); 328 weekly spins (+14); +117 week-over-week weekly spins (-4); 1,023,000 weekly audience impressions (-12,000).
11/19 Thursday: #37 (+1); 350 weekly spins (+22); +128 week-over-week weekly spins (+11); 1,066,000 weekly audience impressions (+43,000).

11/20 Friday: #35 (+2); 372 weekly spins (+22); +137 week-over-week weekly spins (+9); 1,114,000 weekly audience impressions (+48,000).
11/21 Saturday: #34 (+1); 389 weekly spins (+17); +137 week-over-week weekly spins (+0); 1,221,000 weekly audience impressions (+107,000).
11/22 Sunday: #33 (+1); 416 weekly spins (+27); +141 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 1,376,000 weekly audience impressions (+155,000).
11/23 Monday: #32 (+1); 437 weekly spins (+21); +140 week-over-week weekly spins (-1); 1,439,000 weekly audience impressions (+63,000).
11/24 Tuesday: #32 (+0); 455 weekly spins (+18); +141 week-over-week weekly spins (+1); 1,521,000 weekly audience impressions (+82,000).
11/25 Wednesday: #32 (+0); 476 weekly spins (+21); +147 week-over-week weekly spins (+6); 1,586,000 weekly audience impressions (+65,000).
11/26 Thursday: #32 (+0); 491 weekly spins (+15); +141 week-over-week weekly spins (-6); 1,629,000 weekly audience impressions (+43,000).
11/27 Friday: #32 (+0); 523 weekly spins (+32); +151 week-over-week weekly spins (+10); 1,707,000 weekly audience impressions (+78,000).
11/28 Saturday: #31 (+1); 544 weekly spins (+21); +155 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 1,838,000 weekly audience impressions (+131,000).
11/29 Sunday: #31 (+0); 548 weekly spins (+4); +132 week-over-week weekly spins (-23); 1,799,000 weekly audience impressions (-39,000).
11/30 Monday: #30 (+1); 564 weekly spins (+16); +127 week-over-week weekly spins (-5); 1,857,000 weekly audience impressions (+58,000).
12/1 Tuesday: #30 (+0); 576 weekly spins (+12); +120 week-over-week weekly spins (-7); 1,824,000 weekly audience impressions (-33,000).
12/2 Wednesday: #30 (+0); 583 weekly spins (+7); +107 week-over-week weekly spins (-13); 1,902,000 weekly audience impressions (-33,000).
12/3 Thursday: #29 (+1); 608 weekly spins (+25); +117 week-over-week weekly spins (+10); 2,009,000 weekly audience impressions (+107,000).

Sia’s “Alive”

After a maddeningly slow start, and continued stagnant radio airplay, Sia’s “Alive” finally seems to be finding success on some level after a well-received performance on Ellen, featuring (you guessed it) Maddie Ziegler. If you didn’t guess it, Maddie was the girl who danced in all of Sia’s prior music videos before “Alive,” and, in my opinion, 1/3 of Sia’s viral success (the other two parts are Sia’s song-writing and Sia’s voice). Anyways, “Alive” jumped from about #100 into the top 10 on iTunes just in time for the holiday shopping season.  “Alive” currently sits at #9.

Here is the clip of Maddie Ziegler performing Sia’s “Alive” live on Ellen. And here is Sia NOT revealing her face on TV. And here is the official music video for “Alive,” featuring some random girl who isn’t as good as Maddie. And here is Sia’s “Chandelier,” which recently crossed 1 billion global views.

The Chainsmokers’ “Roses” feat. Rozes

Remember that song “Let me take a #SELFIE?” You know, the one that got 387 million YouTube views and rose to #16 on the Hot 100 on sheer viral success?

Well The Chainsmokers are back with a followup, “Roses,” featuring Rozes. The song may have only 1.7 million views so far, but it has climbed to #22 on iTunes, driven by its #21 rank on Pop Songs and #38 rank on Rhythmic. Overall, the song climbs to #75 on radio songs today with 24.131 million audience impressions (+896,000). It is the 13th fastest-growing song on radio. It is at #15 on US Spotify and #39 worldwide. It is #12 on US shazam and #46 on worldwide shazam.

This song is an emerging hit.

Who is Fancy’s “Boys Like You” feat. Meghan Trainor and Ariana Grande

Speaking of emerging hits, label execs are quite clearly trying to groom a new superstar. Emerging gay artist Who is Fancy nabbed not one, but TWO A-list artists to feature on his second single after debut single “Goodbye” reached #29 on pop and #98 on the Hot 100 without much help. “Boys Like You” is certainly getting star treatment with a fancy music video, a debut performance on Dancing with the Stars, and its verse by fancy artists.

The song itself has the makings of a pop hit with a clearly cognizable hook and solid early performance on iTunes and YouTube. On iTunes, the song has surfed around the middled of the top 100 since its release, while the music video has been viewed 2.3 million times in just over one week, with only modest declines in daily views.

I’m watching for a debut on Pop Songs in coming weeks. Once we start getting airplay data, then we can start making predictions about future performance.

Ariana Grande’s “Focus”

After an extraordinary initial run on radio, a mediocre sales start, and a fantastic YouTube view curve, Ariana’s latest single got strongly negative audience reaction from listeners who felt inundated by a song that hadn’t yet grown on them. People like songs that they already know, but that haven’t been overplayed. Too many early spins for a song that could have grown on people if given more breathing room can be the death knell of what otherwise could have been a bigger hit. But, after a sharp reversal in fortunes, Ariana’s hit stabilized with her much-lauded performance at the AMAs.

Ariana is still stalled with about 55 million weekly radio impressions. The question is whether modest declines will accelerate or eventually reverse course.

With a negative rating from a full 40.3% of the 62.9% of pop listeners who were familiar with the song in the most recent callout report, I’m skeptical. But, I also don’t think it is that bad of a song. Without any information, I would have bet that the song would be a sure hit, and it seems radio programmers across the country agreed with me. Certainly, the performance on the AMAs was one of the best live performances o any current pop star. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Haley Reinhart’s Cover of Elvis’ “Can’t Help Falling in Love” is charting on Adult Pop 

See my main article on Haley Reinhart’s radio success.

Haley Reinhart has a new album of original material coming out soon, and in the meantime, she is starting to really get some attention for her amazing vocal technique.

First, she crowd-funded herself into a seriously underrated music video for her original song, “Show Me Your Moves.” Then, she signed a new record deal with Ole and started collaborating with Postmodern Jukebox. She almost instantly became the star of Postmodern Jukebox, as her cover of “Creep” amassed over 12.6 million views (still about 40,000 views/day, 7 months after release), and all of her videos (except the one released 3 hours ago) have pulled in at least 3 million views (only seven of their videos released in the past year not starring Haley Reinhart have been viewed at least 3 million times, and three of those were released before Haley’s first. Besides “Creep,” Haley also stars in the second most-viewed Postmodern Jukebox cover of the past year, “All About that Base.”).

Then, she became the the honey-coated voice of the most heart-wrenching ad campaign of the year for Extra Gum, in which she sings a perfect cover version of Elvis’ “Can’t Help Falling in Love.”

This image captures the most emotional moment in the commercial, after she sees that he kept the gum wrappers from their first date and all their other dates and drew pictures to remind him of those moments. The last picture is him proposing, and she just starts turning around, with a hesitant tear leaking out of her eye.

Screen Shot 2015-12-03 at 11.26.18 AM

If you haven’t seen the commercial yet, you should. Here. If you don’t cry even the fourteenth time you see it, then you should probably see a doctor for your broken tear ducts.

Adele Beat NSYNC’s One-Week Record in Less than Half a Week

Update: With just over one day of tracking remaining, sales are over 3 million. Hits Daily Double is now projecting 3.5 million sales. I don’t know how they arrive at that number, but my guess is that it has something to do with Black Friday, a divergence in Billboard and Hits methodology, and physical retailers possibly under-reporting current sales. Either way, I think 3.2m+ is a safe bet.  

Update: With just over two days of tracking week remaining, sales are at 2.8 million. Billboard has finally increased its estimate to 3 million for the week. It is clearly going to sell at least 3.1 million, possibly even 3.2 million or 3.3 million, given that it sold 500,000 copies in the past two days. Billboard purposively underestimates sales so that it can generate more traffic to easy stories when Adele “outperforms” expectations. 

Update: Billboard has now confirmed that Adele’s 25 broke NSYNC’s record with 2.433 million copies in just over three days of sales. Billboard is predicting 2.9 million total sales for the week; I think the total will be well over 3 million.

Update: HitsDailyDouble projects 5.05 million copies sold by December 31st, for a whopping 45% of all 2015 album sales (that is triple the 15% that NSYNC ended up with in 2000, when they made the 2.416 million weekly sales record). 

In the year 2000, at the height of the CD and boy band fever and before piracy and streaming, 88 albums sold more than one million copies, and six accomplished the feat in a single week. It was then that NSYNC set a record that no other artist since has come close to touching–No Strings Attached sold 2.415 million copies in a single week. The runner up, in fact, was another NSYNC album that sold 1.880 million copies the next year. Although 20 albums have sold more than 1 million copies in a single week since the beginning of Soundscan sales tracking in the early 1990s, a Backstreet Boys album and Britney Spears’ Oops I Did it Again are the only others to have sold more than 1.3 million in a tracking week.

Now, three of the past four albums to sell one million copies in a week have been by artists named Taylor Swift (the fourth was Lady Gaga’s Born This Way in 2011, which was famously discounted in the Amazon store for $1 during its debut week, accounting for perhaps 400,000 of its 1.1 million sales total). Taylor Swift is the only artist to ever sell more than one million copies in a week with three separate albums, and it was once thought that she might be the last artist to ever do so.

Then Adele happened. 

Here is a list of albums selling more than one million copies in a week: Artist; Title; Sales; Sales Week Ending

Adele; 25; TBD*; Nov. 26, 2015 (*sales for debut week to be determined; estimates between 2.9 and 3.4 million)
Taylor Swift; 1989; 1,287,000; Nov. 2, 2014
Taylor Swift; Red; 1,208,000; Oct. 28, 2012
Lady Gaga; Born This Way; 1,108,000; May 29, 2011
Taylor Swift; Speak Now; 1,047,000; Oct. 31, 2010
Lil Wayne; Tha Carter III; 1,006,000; June 15, 2008
50 Cent; The Massacre; 1,141,000; March 6, 2005
Usher; Confessions; 1,096,000; March 28, 2004
Norah Jones; Feels Like Home; 1,022,000; Feb. 15, 2004
Eminem; The Eminem Show; 1,322,000; June 2, 2002
NSYNC; Celebrity; 1,879,955; July 29, 2001
The Beatles; 1; 1,259,000; Dec. 24, 2000
Backstreet Boys; Black & Blue; 1,591,000; Nov. 26, 2000
Limp Bizkit; Chocolate Starfish and the Hot Dog Flavored Water; 1,055,000; Oct. 22, 2000
Eminem; The Marshall Mathers LP; 1,760,049; May 28, 2000
Britney Spears; Oops!…I Did It Again; 1,319,000; May 21, 2000
NSYNC; No Strings Attached; 2,415,859; March 26, 2000
Backstreet Boys; Millennium; 1,134,000; May 23, 1999
Garth Brooks; Double Live; 1,085,000; Nov. 22, 1998
Whitney Houston/Soundtrack; The Bodyguard; 1,061,000; Jan. 3, 1993

And here is a list of some huge artists that have released huge albums in recent years that have NOT sold one million copies in a week:

Katy Perry (Prism only sold 286,000 in its first week, and that is KP’s best figure to date, following Teenage Dream, which matched MJ’s Bad record of 5 #1 singles off a single album).
Miley Cyrus (Bangers sold 270,000 copies first-week)
Nicki Minaj (The Pinkprint sold 198,000 in pure album sales, first-week)
Lady Gaga (I know people are calling Artpop a flop, with only 258,000 copies first-week, but it was still one of the ten best-selling albums of 2013. Cheek-to-Cheek (with Tony Bennet) debuted at #1 with about 130,000 first-week sales)
One Direction (Their biggest opening weeks have been around 400,000)
Justin Bieber (With all of the hubbub surrounding the Bieber v. One Direction album battle last week, Justin Bieber more than doubled initial sales forecasts by selling over 600,000 copies of his album–IF you count album-equivalent track sales and streams. If you don’t, then it sold 522,000 copies first week)
Justin Timberlake (The 20/20 Experience came close to a million with 968,000 when it was released on March 15th, 2013, but no cigar)
Eminem (The Marshal Mathers EP 2 sold over 700,000 in 2013)
Beyonce (Remember the surprise album drop right before Christmas? It didn’t quite sell 1 million in a week, even if you ignore the fact that it was released in the middle of a tracking week.).
Kendrick Lamar (To Pimp a Butterfly 324,000)
Drake (If You’re Reading this, It’s too Late 495,000 pure album sales)
Dr. Dre (Compton 295,000)
Sam Smith (In the Lonely Hour has been a slow burn, without selling a ton in any given week. 166,000)
Maroon 5 (V 165,000)
Ed Sheeran (210,000 — also a slow burn driven by singles)
Various Artists (Fifty Shades of Grey 258,000)
Meghan Trainor (Title 238,000 — slow burn driven by singles)
Fall Out Boy (American Beauty/American Psycho 218,000)
Josh Groban (Stages about 500,000 copies all year; 180,000 in its first week if you count album equivalent streams and track sales)
Various Artists (Furious 7 Soundtrack)
Susan Boyle (I Dreamed a Dream sold 701,000 copies in its debut week in 2009. That was the biggest debut frame of the year, and the album was the second-biggest seller of the year with 3.1 million, after Taylor Swift’s Fearless (3.2 million). The album impressively continued to sell over 500,000 copies/week until after Christmas.)

Adele’s 25 is Blowing Past Sky-High Expectations

Update 11/23/15 – 25 sold 2.3 million copies in its first three days. Billboard’s new estimate: 2.9 million. I still expect over 3.3 million. 

Update 11/23/15 – 25 sold 1.902 million copies in its first two days, including 1.18 million digital copies and 722,000 physical copies. Thus, it is already the best-selling album of the year. Taylor Swift’s 1989 comes in second with 1.7 million.

There was a time not too long ago when the music industry questioned whether anyone not named Taylor Swift would ever sell a million copies of an album in a single week again. Taylor herself had accomplished the feat three times (in a row), more than any other artist in the SoundScan era. In fact, when 1989 was released last year, it was the first album to sell 1 million in a week since Taylor Swift’s 2012 album, Red.

Then Adele happened. 

After nearly doubling the previous sales record for a digital single with the debut of “Hello,” Adele went on to even more completely destroy the digital pre-order record (which was around 200,000) with about 550,000 preorders (200,000 in the first three days!). By that time, it was clear that Adele would indeed sell 1 million copies of 25 in its first week. The question turned to whether Adele could sell 2 million. Fairly early on, I predicted that 25 would sell at least 2 million copies, and I even posited that it would not be at all inconceivable that the album might sell more than 3 million in its first week. Billboard and other industry insiders were more conservative, with early estimates ranging from 1.3 million to 1.8 million. Billboard’s estimate rose to 2-2.5 million just before release. Now, the estimate has shifted up to 2.5-3 million copies.

But Billboard’s estimate is still conservative. 

Billboard’s estimate is based on first-day iTunes sales of 900,000 copies. That presumably includes about 450,000 preorders and 450,000 new orders of the album. Billboard has previously estimated that 25 sold 100,000 non-iTunes preorders, so, if we assume that it also sold 100,000 non-iTunes, non-preorder downloads, then 25 sold approximately 1.1 million digital copies in its first day.

When Billboard and Adele’s label predicted 2.5 million total sales, they were assuming 1 million digital downloads and 1.5 million physical sales. But, if the album has already sold 1.1 million downloads just in its first day, then these estimates are way off.

We don’t yet have any sales data for physical copies of 25 that I am aware of, but if we keep assuming 1.5 million, then the album would sell 2.6 million over the week even without any additional digital sales. The album is going to keep selling digitally. In real terms, the album sold 550,000 copies in its first day. If we assume that it will sell twice that again over the following six days, then we should expect 2.2 million total digital sales. That implies 3.7 million total sales. But, if digital copies of 25 are flying off of digital shelves, then who is to say that physical copies aren’t also flying off of real shelves even faster than expected? Could 25 sell 2 million physical copies? 3.7 million copies were shipped, so there is definitely the potential for more than 1.5 million to be sold in the first week.

At this point, it is not inconceivable that Adele could sell more than 4 million copies of 25 in its first week. 

But, maybe 25 won’t sell another 1.1 million digital copies this week. Maybe it will only sell another 550,000 digitally. Maybe it really will only sell 1.5 million physical copies in its first week. That still leaves us expecting 3.15 million copies sold in the first week, well above Billboard’s current estimate, and well above the current 2.415 million record.

Conclusion

Adele’s album is going to sell a lot of copies. How many?

I am now predicting 3.4675 million.

Why? When I made my initial predictions, I extrapolated data from Taylor Swift’s 1989. I looked at pre-order data, first-week sales of the lead single, and total album sales for the immediately preceding album. Interestingly, total album sales for the immediately preceding album and pre-order data both predicted between 3.3 and 3.6 million first week copies, which is what it now looks like Adele will end up selling. The first-week sales of the first single predicted around 2.6 million copies. It looks like an outlier, and intuitively it seems that it would have less predictive value than the other two stats. Preorder data has an obvious correlation to first-week album sales, and the long-term success of the immediately preceding album has long been known to be one of the best predictors of the magnitude of the initial sales debut bump, since most buyers at that point are basing their decision to purchase on their preconceptions of the kind of music that they will get from the artist. So, I took the flat average of the two data-driven estimates, and noted that it looked eminently reasonable based on my current preconceptions of Adele’s current album sales, and adopted it.

The data don’t lie. They paint a picture of a portion of reality, and the only question is to what extent the portion that you can’t see correlates well with what you can see. I guess I should have put more trust in the data in the first place, then my initial estimate would have been even more accurate relative to Billboard’s than it already is. ;P

“Another Lonely Night” Accelerates at Hot AC

Adam Lambert’s latest single off of The Original High has been accelerating modestly on Hot AC/Adult Pop. In other words, the rate at which it is increasing in audience impressions and spins has itself been increasing. For Adam Lambert fans, this is good news, as it implies that the song will be a bigger hit sooner.

“Another Lonely Night” has risen at least one position each day on the 50-position Hot AC radio airplay chart since it debuted on 11/14/15, and it currently sits at #33, with 416 spins representing 1,376,000 audience impressions over the past week.

Over the past week, it is the 16th fastest-growing song on the HAC chart by spins. Over the day yesterday (Saturday) relative to the prior day (Friday), it was the 8th fastest-growing song by spins and the 10th fastest-growing by audience impressions.

Overall, “Another Lonely Night” rises from #601 to #584 (+17) on radio today. Since the day before its first appearance on the chart (9 days ago), its weekly audience impressions have increased from 895,000 to 1,376,000 (+481,000, or 53.74%), with most of that gain (262,000, or 54.47%) occurring in the past two days. In that same time frame, weekly spins have increased from 235 to 416 (+181, or 77.02%), with the weekly rate of change accelerating from 108 to 141 (+33, or +30.56%).

If the overall audience impressions still seem weak, its because they are. Keep in mind that this is a song that just debuted on its first airplay chart one week ago. Wait until it debuts on Pop (which it will reasonably soon, since it is getting a lot of adds), and give it a month to get established, and then the overall numbers should start to look competitive.

But, for now, we can look for patterns in the data that can be used to predict future performance.

Here is essentially all of the data we currently have on the radio performance of “Another Lonely Night.” This information is available and updated semi-regularly on the data page for “Another Lonely Night.”

Adult Pop (HAC)
11/13 Friday: #NA; 235 weekly spins; +108 week-over-week weekly spins; 895,000 weekly audience impressions.
11/14 Saturday: #50; 252 weekly spins (+17); +109 week-over-week weekly spins (+1); 903,000 weekly audience impressions (+8,000).
11/15 Sunday: #48 (+2); 275 weekly spins (+23); +113 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 949,000 weekly audience impressions (+46,000).
11/16 Monday: #41 (+7); 297 weekly spins (+22); +119 week-over-week weekly spins (+6); 993,000 weekly audience impressions (+44,000).
11/17 Tuesday: #39 (+2); 314 weekly spins (+17); +121 week-over-week weekly spins (+2); 1,035,000 weekly audience impressions (+42,000).
11/18 Wednesday: #38 (+1); 328 weekly spins (+14); +117 week-over-week weekly spins (-4); 1,023,000 weekly audience impressions (-12,000).
11/19 Thursday: #37 (+1); 350 weekly spins (+22); +128 week-over-week weekly spins (+11); 1,066,000 weekly audience impressions (+43,000).

11/20 Friday: #35 (+2); 372 weekly spins (+22); +137 week-over-week weekly spins (+9); 1,114,000 weekly audience impressions (+48,000).
11/21 Saturday: #34 (+1); 389 weekly spins (+17); +137 week-over-week weekly spins (+0); 1,221,000 weekly audience impressions (+107,000).
11/22 Sunday: #33 (+1); 416 weekly spins (+27); +141 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 1,376,000 weekly audience impressions (+155,000).

So what can we do with this data?

The easiest thing to do is to extrapolate future chart positions from the current week-over-week spin increase. If we simply assume that spins will continue to increase at their current rate of 141/week, then we can project future chart positions in coming Sundays of: 31 (557 spins), 30 (698 spins), 28 (839 spins), 25 (980 spins), 24 (1121 spins), and 23 (1262 spins).

But, the rate of increase of weekly spins has itself been increasing at a rate of 3 2/3 per day, or 25 2/3 per week. If we assume a constant rate of acceleration of 25 2/3 spins per week, then we can project future chart positions in coming Sundays of: 31 (582.67 spins, or +166.67), 29 (775 spins, or +192.33), 25 (993 spins, or +218), 24 (1226.67 spins, or +233.67), 22 (1486 spins, or +259.33), and 19 (1771 spins, or +285).

So, take from that what you will. It’s by no means inconceivable that Adam Lambert’s song could be a top 20 hit on HAC in 6 weeks, but neither is it guaranteed. The song could slow before then, or it could start picking up steam.

Right now, of course, we are only operating on nine days’ worth of data. Adam hasn’t been performing the song on a lot of television shows, and we don’t have any Callout survey data on song-popularity yet. As more data start to come in, we will be able to generate more firm predictions.

So what can we say?

We can definitively say that the song is not toast yet. There is no real probative evidence that suggests that the song won’t be a hit.

Personally, I always thought “Another Lonely Night” was one of if not the song on the album with the biggest hit potential. “Ghost Town” is a good song, but it sounds like something you would hear in the club or on certain specialized radio stations. It never sounded like a pop hit to me.

“Another Lonely Night” sounds EXACTLY like a pop hit. Honestly, I kindof suspect that Warner Bros. released “Ghost Town” first in order to break the ice. They wanted to put a song out there that would slowly build up radio airplay in a completely organic and non-controversial way, so that radio would get used to the idea that it is safe to play Adam Lambert. Then, they drop the next big thing out of the bag. It isn’t dead on entry because radio has already been warmed up for Adam Lambert. The song gets a critical mass of early spins, and it starts to take root in people’s minds. It does well because its a good song, and then it starts to generate mainstream attention and pull in heavy radio airplay.

Keep in mind that Max Martin and Shellback are responsible for more pop hits than practically anyone else in history. They were at the heart of Adam Lambert’s early success, and they were absent from his commercially unsuccessful second studio effort. Adam Lambert has the capacity to be a permanent force in the music industry. He has a core fanbase that rivals (and frequently bests) those of any female pop diva, on, for example, stacking online votes. His flamboyant sexuality is barely even an issue these days. Coupled with hitmakers like Max Martin and Shellback and firmly backed by a supportive label, there is no reason to think that Adam can’t achieve mainstream success, and if “Another Lonely Night” isn’t the song that is going to get him there, then I’m seriously misreading the music market.

But, it will be interesting to see if the data end up confirming my suspicions. Let me know what you think in the comments below.

Another Lonely Night

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