Lady Gaga “Perfect Illusion” Early Sales/Chart Projections

I estimate that “Perfect Illusion” peaked with about 230,000 – 240,000 sales per week, or about 35,000 first-day sales. It has already started declining. I suspect it will decline to around 70,000 sales/week by the end of the first week, or 10,000 sales in its last day. This yields daily sales projections close to the following:

35,000
27,000
20,000
17,000
15,000
13,000
10,000

Total: 137,000 sales

+ 30M radio airplay
+ 8 million streams

Projection: Debut #4 – #12 on Hot 100
Prediction: Debut around #8 on Hot 100

I don’t currently have any actual US streaming or radio airplay numbers. The song may not officially officially impact HAC, AC, and Pop radio formats immediately; but the radio airplay tracking week doesn’t start until Sunday, so Gaga may have done that intentionally in order to stack first-day promotional radio airplay into the first tracking week.

It may be that when the song gets first-day promotional radio airplay, it will spur an immediate resurgence in sales and streams. This, along with possible promotion by Gaga (TV appearances, scandals, release of a music video) would modify our expectations.

As it is, the song looks likely to pull in 7-10 million WW first-day streams for the Youtube clip (not a music video yet) and a few million WW spotify streams. I expect Gaga’s streaming figures to be heavily tilted towards international audiences, and I expect a relatively sharp second and third day decline. WW Youtube views should stabilize around 2 million/day, given a strong reception at radio in the US and abroad, which I think is likely.

An abnormally large number of commenters one Gaga’s youtube video of the official audio for “Perfect Illusion” have noted that the song grew on them rapidly over repeat listens, occasionally causing a complete 180 degree turnaround from opinions of hatred and disappointment to adoration. This trend bodes well for the song’s long-term future at US radio, after a slow period during which the radio audience becomes gradually accustomed to it.

What do you think?

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pdaines

Peter Daines is a law student at Georgetown University Law Center. His interests include studying foreign languages, watching and predicting events in politics and the music industry, and searching fruitlessly for the meaning of life.

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