Adele’s 25 – 5,706,000 Official WW Copies First Week

25 Sales in some of the largest markets –
USA 3,377,900 (Nielsen Music) (3.48 million including track and stream equivalent album sales)
Japan 13,000 (Oricon)
United Kingdom 800,300 (OCC)
Germany 263,000 (GfK)
France 169,700 (SNEP)
Canada 305,900 (Nielsen Music)
Australia 126,100 (ARIA)
Italy 46,000 (FIMI)

25 broke first-week sales records in the U.K. and the USA. It went triple platinum in both the US and Australia. Overall, it sold 5,706,000 copies in its first week, instantly becoming the best-selling album of the year (both in the USA AND globally).

In the United States, the prior one-week sales record was held by NSYNC’s No Strings Attached, which bowed with 2.4 million in 2000, at the height of the CD and boy bands, and before streaming and pirating ravaged the music industry. At a time when the album is practically dead, Adele rose from the ashes and completely decimated NSYNC’s record.

What’s more, no album has EVER sold more than 1 million copies before in more than one week. Adele is now poised to do just that. Taylor Swift has been roundly praised for being the only artist to bring three albums to debut with million+ weeks, and for being the only artist not named Adele or Lady Gaga to debut with 1m+ since 2006. But Taylor Swift’s albums each debuted with just over 1 million. 1989 is her strongest of the three, and it debuted with only 1.28 million. In other words, Adele is now poised to do in her SECOND WEEK what everyone is amazed that anyone can still do in their first week.

Last year, the Frozen album was #1 for 13 weeks, and kept selling records all year long. It was the top-selling album of the year for every week until the very last week of the year, when Taylor Swift’s 1989 barely eclipsed it. Both albums ended up with about 3.5 million copies sold in the entire year. (Note: in 2013, the top-selling album was Justin Timberlake’s The 20/20 Experience, with only 2.43 million; Adele’s 21 was the best-selling album of 2011 (5.82 m) and 2012(4.41 m)). Thus, Adele’s 1-week total is within spitting distance of the total yearly sales of the biggest-selling album of 2014.

How many copies will 25 sell by the end of this year? HitsDailyDouble.com is currently predicting that it will sell over 7 million copies by years’ end. In order to sell more than both Frozen (3.53m) and 1989 (3.66m) put together, it will need to sell 7.19 million copies. Billboard estimates that it has already sold 4.2 million copies in less than two weeks. So, it would need to sell another 3 million copies over the next 4 weeks, for an AVERAGE of 750,000 copies/week.

Can Adele sell over 1 million copies in THREE weeks (namely, the week right before Christmas)? Maybe. Regardless, it is now clear that Adele has successfully followed up 21 (which was recently named the top Billboard 200 album of all time, ahead of even Thriller and The Sound of Music) with a comparable global smash. And that, is seriously an accomplishment.

Projections

Update: second week sales for 25 are finalized at 1,021,558. I have adjusted figures in my projections accordingly. I would also like to point out the remarkable accuracy of my 1.025 million running projection… ;P

Here are current projections from hitsdailydouble.com:

Week 47 –  3,377,900 (debut)

Week 48 – 1m

Week 49 – 600k

Week 50 – 800k

Week 51 – 1m

Week 52 – 500k

Year-end projected – ~7,277,900

I find these projections generally reasonable. But Hits thinks it is a conservative estimate, and I agree. I also want Adele to have a record 3 million+ sales weeks, however, so I am going to bump up all of the numbers by a 25,000 err0r margin.

Week 47 –  3,377,900 (debut)

Week 48 – 1.025m

Week 49 – 625k

Week 50 – 825k

Week 51 – 1.025m

Week 52 – 525k

Year-end projected – ~7,402,900

Then, let’s assume that sales in 2016 follow close to the same pattern for Adele’s 25 as they did for Taylor Swift’s 1989. Here is what Adele’s sales might look like:

Key: Week # Last day of tracking week  – Projected Adele sales based on Taylor Swift sales, +/-% (Taylor Swift figures in parenthesis for comparison, +/-%) (additional explanatory parentheticals) [Actual figures as they come in updated in brackets; *indicates sales figure is from HitsDailyDouble, rather than the slightly more authoritative Billboard/Soundscan #s (which come out later if they are released at all), +/-%].

Week 44 11/5 – NA (1,287,000, debut)

Week 45 11/12 – NA (402,000, -69%)

Week 46 11/19 – NA (312,000, -22%)

Week 47 11/26 – 3,377,900, debut (212,839, -32%) [3,377,900]

Week 48 12/3 – 1,047,149, -69% (281,000, +32%) [1,021,558*, -70%]

Week 49 12/10 – 816,776, -22% (230,000, -18%)

Week 50 12/17 – 825k, +1% (278,000, +21%)

Week 51 12/24 – 1.025m, +24% (331,000, +19%)

Week 52 12/31 – 525,000, -49% (326,000, -2%)

Year End – 7,616,825 (3.66 million) (difference: 3,956,825; Adele +108.1%)

Week 1, 1/7 – 341,250, -35% (172,000, -47%)

Week 2 1/14 – 279,825, -18% (111,000, -35%) 1/14

Week 3 1/21 – 248,205, -11.3% (92,000, -18%)

Week 4 1/28 – 215,938, -13% (81,609, -11.3%) (1 million track and streaming equivalents expected)

Week 5 2/4 – 187,866, -13% (71,000, -13%)

Week 6 2/11 – 204,023, +8.6% (77,132 +8.6%) (10,293,932 total track equivalent album sales for diamond certification; 9,093,932 pure album sales)

Week 7 2/18 – 244,419, +19.6% (92,430, +19.8%)

Week 8 2/25 – 144,696, -40.8% (55,618, -40.8%) 2/25

Week 9 3/3 – 123,136, -14.9% (47,381, -14.9%)

Week 10 3/10 – 109,591, -11% (42,189, -11%)

Week 11 3/17 – 99,180, -9.5% (38,200, -9.5%)

Week 12 3/24 – 89,163, -10.1% (34,341, -10.1%)

Week 13 3/31 – 86,399 -3.1% (33,292, -3.1%)

Week 14 4/7 – 101,346, +17.3% (39,038, +17.3%) (10,091,862 total copies; diamond certification in USA in pure album sales)

Week 15 4/14 – 69,726, -31.2% (26,845, -31.2%)

Week 16 4/21 – 62,056, -11% (23,898, -11%)

Week 17 4/28 – 61,125, -1.5% (23,534, -1.5%)

Week 18 5/5 – 53,301, -12.8% (20,533, -12.8%) (2,721,245 pure album sales ytd; 10,338,070 total)

Week 19 5/12 – 65,027, +22% (25,094, +22%)

Week 20 5/19 – 55,273, -15% (21,265, -15%)

Week 21 5/26 – 104,466, +89% (40,233, +89%)

Week 22 6/2 – 88,796, -15% (34,248, -15%)

Week 23 6/9 – 88,796, +0% (34,280, +0%)

Week 24 6/16 – 81,693, -8% (31,671, -8%)

Week 25 6/23 – 75,157, -8% (29,116, -8%)

Week 26 6/30 – 75,157, -8% (29,097, +0%)

Week 27 7/7 – 69,896, -7% (26,916, -7%)

*Week 28 7/14 – 75,488, +8% (29,212, +8%)

Week 29 7/21 – 66,429, -12% (25,662, -12%)

Week 30 7/28 – 60,451, -9% (23,425, -9%)

Week 31 8/4 – 52,592, -13% (20,296, -13%)

Week 32 8/11 – 49,962, -5% (19,371, -5%)

Week 33 8/18 – 49,962, -0% (19,293, -0%)

Week 34 8/25 – 45,466, -9% (17,597, -9%)

Week 35 9/1 – 65,471, +44% (25,307, +44%)

Week 36 9/8 – 67,435, +3% (26,074, +3%)

Week 37 9/15 – 54,622, -19% (21,158, -19%)

Week 38 9/22 – 63,908, +17% (24,828, +17%)

Week 39 9/29 – 53,683, -16% (20,343, -16%)

Week 40 10/6 – 49,388, -8% (18,803, -8%)

Week 41 10/13 – 52,845, +7% (20,058, +7%)

Week 42 10/20 – 50,731, -4% (19,213, -4%)

Week 43 10/27 – 45,151, -4% (17,105, -11%)

Week 44 11/3 – 42,442, -6% (17,230, -6%)

Week 45 11/10 -36,924, -13% (15,050, -13%)

Week 46 11/17 – 32,494, -12% (13,012, -12%)

Week 47 11/24 – 65,637, +102% (28,700, +102%)

Week 48 12/1 – 112,896, +72% (51,391, +72%) (another 1,898,238, for 4,619,483 ytd; 12,236,308 total pure album sales)

Week 49 12/8 – 158,054, +40%

Week 50 12/15 – 205,471, +30%

Week 51 12/22 – 287,659, +40%

Week 52 12/29 – 143,830, -50%

Final – 5,414,497, ytd; 13,031,322 total pure album sales

New year: sharpness sales dropoff will likely depend substantially on whether new singles are still being successfully promoted to radio, but it should be expected to drop fairly quickly down at least to the pre-Christmas boom levels. Without current singles, the album would likely stabilize between 20k and 3ok and then drop at a rate of perhaps -10%/week.

Week 1 1/5 – 71,915, -50%

Week 2 1/12 – 43,149, -40%

Week 3 1/19 – 30,204, -30%

Week 4 1/26 – 27,184, -10%

Week 5 2/2 – 26,640, -2%

 

 

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pdaines

Peter Daines is a law student at Georgetown University Law Center. His interests include studying foreign languages, watching and predicting events in politics and the music industry, and searching fruitlessly for the meaning of life.

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