“Another Lonely Night” Accelerates at Hot AC

Adam Lambert’s latest single off of The Original High has been accelerating modestly on Hot AC/Adult Pop. In other words, the rate at which it is increasing in audience impressions and spins has itself been increasing. For Adam Lambert fans, this is good news, as it implies that the song will be a bigger hit sooner.

“Another Lonely Night” has risen at least one position each day on the 50-position Hot AC radio airplay chart since it debuted on 11/14/15, and it currently sits at #33, with 416 spins representing 1,376,000 audience impressions over the past week.

Over the past week, it is the 16th fastest-growing song on the HAC chart by spins. Over the day yesterday (Saturday) relative to the prior day (Friday), it was the 8th fastest-growing song by spins and the 10th fastest-growing by audience impressions.

Overall, “Another Lonely Night” rises from #601 to #584 (+17) on radio today. Since the day before its first appearance on the chart (9 days ago), its weekly audience impressions have increased from 895,000 to 1,376,000 (+481,000, or 53.74%), with most of that gain (262,000, or 54.47%) occurring in the past two days. In that same time frame, weekly spins have increased from 235 to 416 (+181, or 77.02%), with the weekly rate of change accelerating from 108 to 141 (+33, or +30.56%).

If the overall audience impressions still seem weak, its because they are. Keep in mind that this is a song that just debuted on its first airplay chart one week ago. Wait until it debuts on Pop (which it will reasonably soon, since it is getting a lot of adds), and give it a month to get established, and then the overall numbers should start to look competitive.

But, for now, we can look for patterns in the data that can be used to predict future performance.

Here is essentially all of the data we currently have on the radio performance of “Another Lonely Night.” This information is available and updated semi-regularly on the data page for “Another Lonely Night.”

Adult Pop (HAC)
11/13 Friday: #NA; 235 weekly spins; +108 week-over-week weekly spins; 895,000 weekly audience impressions.
11/14 Saturday: #50; 252 weekly spins (+17); +109 week-over-week weekly spins (+1); 903,000 weekly audience impressions (+8,000).
11/15 Sunday: #48 (+2); 275 weekly spins (+23); +113 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 949,000 weekly audience impressions (+46,000).
11/16 Monday: #41 (+7); 297 weekly spins (+22); +119 week-over-week weekly spins (+6); 993,000 weekly audience impressions (+44,000).
11/17 Tuesday: #39 (+2); 314 weekly spins (+17); +121 week-over-week weekly spins (+2); 1,035,000 weekly audience impressions (+42,000).
11/18 Wednesday: #38 (+1); 328 weekly spins (+14); +117 week-over-week weekly spins (-4); 1,023,000 weekly audience impressions (-12,000).
11/19 Thursday: #37 (+1); 350 weekly spins (+22); +128 week-over-week weekly spins (+11); 1,066,000 weekly audience impressions (+43,000).

11/20 Friday: #35 (+2); 372 weekly spins (+22); +137 week-over-week weekly spins (+9); 1,114,000 weekly audience impressions (+48,000).
11/21 Saturday: #34 (+1); 389 weekly spins (+17); +137 week-over-week weekly spins (+0); 1,221,000 weekly audience impressions (+107,000).
11/22 Sunday: #33 (+1); 416 weekly spins (+27); +141 week-over-week weekly spins (+4); 1,376,000 weekly audience impressions (+155,000).

So what can we do with this data?

The easiest thing to do is to extrapolate future chart positions from the current week-over-week spin increase. If we simply assume that spins will continue to increase at their current rate of 141/week, then we can project future chart positions in coming Sundays of: 31 (557 spins), 30 (698 spins), 28 (839 spins), 25 (980 spins), 24 (1121 spins), and 23 (1262 spins).

But, the rate of increase of weekly spins has itself been increasing at a rate of 3 2/3 per day, or 25 2/3 per week. If we assume a constant rate of acceleration of 25 2/3 spins per week, then we can project future chart positions in coming Sundays of: 31 (582.67 spins, or +166.67), 29 (775 spins, or +192.33), 25 (993 spins, or +218), 24 (1226.67 spins, or +233.67), 22 (1486 spins, or +259.33), and 19 (1771 spins, or +285).

So, take from that what you will. It’s by no means inconceivable that Adam Lambert’s song could be a top 20 hit on HAC in 6 weeks, but neither is it guaranteed. The song could slow before then, or it could start picking up steam.

Right now, of course, we are only operating on nine days’ worth of data. Adam hasn’t been performing the song on a lot of television shows, and we don’t have any Callout survey data on song-popularity yet. As more data start to come in, we will be able to generate more firm predictions.

So what can we say?

We can definitively say that the song is not toast yet. There is no real probative evidence that suggests that the song won’t be a hit.

Personally, I always thought “Another Lonely Night” was one of if not the song on the album with the biggest hit potential. “Ghost Town” is a good song, but it sounds like something you would hear in the club or on certain specialized radio stations. It never sounded like a pop hit to me.

“Another Lonely Night” sounds EXACTLY like a pop hit. Honestly, I kindof suspect that Warner Bros. released “Ghost Town” first in order to break the ice. They wanted to put a song out there that would slowly build up radio airplay in a completely organic and non-controversial way, so that radio would get used to the idea that it is safe to play Adam Lambert. Then, they drop the next big thing out of the bag. It isn’t dead on entry because radio has already been warmed up for Adam Lambert. The song gets a critical mass of early spins, and it starts to take root in people’s minds. It does well because its a good song, and then it starts to generate mainstream attention and pull in heavy radio airplay.

Keep in mind that Max Martin and Shellback are responsible for more pop hits than practically anyone else in history. They were at the heart of Adam Lambert’s early success, and they were absent from his commercially unsuccessful second studio effort. Adam Lambert has the capacity to be a permanent force in the music industry. He has a core fanbase that rivals (and frequently bests) those of any female pop diva, on, for example, stacking online votes. His flamboyant sexuality is barely even an issue these days. Coupled with hitmakers like Max Martin and Shellback and firmly backed by a supportive label, there is no reason to think that Adam can’t achieve mainstream success, and if “Another Lonely Night” isn’t the song that is going to get him there, then I’m seriously misreading the music market.

But, it will be interesting to see if the data end up confirming my suspicions. Let me know what you think in the comments below.

Another Lonely Night

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pdaines

Peter Daines is a law student at Georgetown University Law Center. His interests include studying foreign languages, watching and predicting events in politics and the music industry, and searching fruitlessly for the meaning of life.

3 thoughts on ““Another Lonely Night” Accelerates at Hot AC”

  1. Hi Peter,
    Thank you. IMHO, Adam is one of the best live pop vocalist of this generation. I like his work with Queen( honestly I found Queen from Gaga) and what he stands for in terms of a diverse and peaceful world, yet he didn’t have a song that says it explicitly.(that song from movie 2012 .. arguably ..) I always feel he fits some epic humanitarian songs (like MJ , Lennon or Queen..) ALN the song itself sounded little like Kiesza (which is cool) and it’s just about loneliness, ALN video gears toward a diverse demo, very nicely done, it feels like Augilera’s Beautiful. In fact I don’t recall any song from Max Martin that is politically charged or addressing world peace sort of thing.. maybe some empowerment songs by Pink or Perry.
    (I’m not sure why the current chart a bunch of people all singing about relationships went bad..or prior lovers.. There’s gotta be more than that happening in the world)
    I felt the singles in his previous eras sounded like songs for pop girls. This time the production, sonic elements are more fitting for a mature dude (except shame), well IMHO. Talking about core fan base.. without major hits, Adam fans in the States are remains from his idol / glee run. By comparing the audience in Adam’s gma summer concerts and same series from other performers.. check out the audience of another idol guy (Philip?) the audience look about the same as Adams. Then look at footage of Adam overseas, the audience are young women. Not that I’m saying anything negative about any particular demo. They are pretty lucrative if you see this
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/adeles-most-fervent-fans-soccer-moms-1447963361
    It seems artists from UK area are not required to be ‘attractive’. Maybe the management is very open minded, or maybe this is the new way to stand out from the crowd or the radio PD over there likes to play these folks as the real talents..The gimmick over gimmicks? Or the Dov e’s campaign for real beauty. If I recall Trainor made it in UK first?
    From a marketer standpoint, I really hope they will find Adam can grow a fanbase and can appeal to board demo. I remember at the very beginning (WWFM) he was comparable to Mars. He will have more opportunities if he could show marketer he can bring in new fans. I wonder if Adams early days had anything to do with this (http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/3835431 )
    I found it very interesting, usually for casual fans, they like the couple songs of the band/people then go to concerts. Idol constants fan base is the reverse, they like the performer first then probably the songs. Imagine these people had never seen Adam perform, they are not likely be fans of,say the singles,FYE or BTIKM. ( both from the same writer producer?)

    My wishful thinking is Adam appear in A HS at the same season as S Queen as one likable character that sort of connect the two Tv shows. ( I think both shows demographic will be receptive to Adam)
    I actually hope ‘rumors’ to be next single because of T L’s demographic and a cool image.
    And I hope him get to perform in front of a different demographic in March in some kind of festivals (not state county fair).. If opening for someone, I personally would like to see him open for currently bigger bands or electronic artists if that’s cost effective, good promotion & fan conversion rate effective. Very sorry for the long rant, I appreciate your place. Adam’s fans are very passionate( including myself unfortunately). I found Adam as very interesting marketing/branding or even sociology studying case. If he could make it big, I would give major kudos to his whole team.
    What do you think will help promotion?
    Thank you
    L

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    1. I think Adam’s best promotion comes from creating pop hits that do well at radio. If he can generate consistent pop hits, then people will know him. Right now, he has his label backing him, and he’s working with Max Martin and Shellback, so I expect him to be successful. “Ghost Town” was a modest sleeper hit. I expect that “Another Lonely Night” will break out, and that it will be followed by more t least moderately successful singles off the album. I can see, for example, “The Original High,” “Underground,” and “Rumors” finding more success on 2015 Pop radio than did “Ghost Town.”

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  2. True. I totally agree the important of radio play. Max & team has multiple artists on the chart. It’s like Max song vs Max song. Can’t really tell if ALN will move up as fast as other artists since they have name recognition advantage. A lot of strong competition out there and sponsors would probably help out those who tours during summer. I think adventure of lifetime is a bop. It will move pass everyone. This season we have quite a few mid to slow tempo songs. ALN fit right in, I sure hope sells will follow. For era 3, I’m very glad to see everything is planned correctly.

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